Jan 21, 2005 – Numbers are simple, straightforward and objective, but they make lousy copy.   The only time people pay attention to them is when they've been shaped by some "human interest" angle.  When we ignore numbers though, or if we continually filter them through a prism of words and add in our biases, we miss their message.
Here are three numbers stories. Two came and went without much notice and one, the last one, seems to be catching on a bit.
The day before the tsunami hit Southeast Asia, a petition with 1.7 million signatures was submitted to the UN by the long-suffering Kurdish people of Northern Iraq asking if the coming election would also give them voice on the subject of their own sovereignty.    But self-determination is only championed where an existing national interest is served and is ignored when one is threatened. So even though this distinct, vibrant and ancient people have created a society and polity that has a far greater claim to statehood than almost all the other entities in the Middle East, there's little doubt their petition will be ignored. If the story generated any interest it was all washed out to sea by the overpowering tsunami.
The "no-fly zone," created in 1991, allowed the Kurds to build a virtual state with institutions and infrastructure far closer to our vision of a democratized Middle East than anything that now exists except for Israel. Free markets, property rights and the rule of law now all have a chance of taking root in this corner of the Middle East. Increasingly literate, a modern Kurdistan could be that vital link between the Muslim Middle East and the West.
But our State Department, always on the side of the status quo; the UN; and the Kurds neighbors Turkey and Syria, all jointly dread an independent Kurdistan. This is reminiscent of Israel's long road to a national entity in a world that was hostile to the idea of non-Arab statehood in the Middle East, especially if it were Jewish statehood.
By standing in the way of a Kurdish nation we perversely support the corrupt and antidemocratic regimes of the area as we rebuff efforts of the 4 or 5 million Kurds of northern Iraq to establish their own country.  We also deny the 1.7 signatories of this petition the right to speak on this issue.
A poll taken in November by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion got little press at the time possibly because of what it found. Seventy percent of the 528 West Bank residents questioned said they’d emigrate if they could find housing or employment elsewhere or if a financial incentive was provided.
If the problem of Arabs and Jews living side by side has been insoluble to date, then a solution has presented itself, but because there is no constituency for this alternative and a real fear of being stigmatized as a proponent of "transfer" or worse, the information spent one day in the media and attracted little notice.  At the very least, there should be more data compiled about this possibility and the media should be leading the way in asking for it.
Many Israelis and Americans who are strong supporters of Israel have long feared the danger of the Jewish State being overwhelmed by an ever-expanding Arab population. The argument for a two-state solution rests on this fear and sees an imminent Arab majority between the Jordan River and Mediterranean.
Now we find the numbers we've worked with until now don’t add up. Instead of being one of the fastest growing populations in the world, the Arabs are less prolific than previously thought, have in many ways been double counted and are leaving Judea and Samaria in significant numbers. 3.8 million, the latest population figure propagated by Arab interests, has never been adequately questioned even though it has risen to that place at a pace that is duplicated hardly anywhere else in the world.
Along comes Israeli consultant Yoram Ettinger, who has visited this topic a number of times. In a study funded here in the States he finds that the reality is much different from the numbers we’ve been using. In a presentation to the American Enterprise Institute and the Heritage Foundation, he places the Arab population at 2.4 million. That's a 1.5 million difference with the commonly accepted number.
These numbers are important. UN cash and other monies given to Arab agencies are based on population numbers. The claim to the very land itself is derived by the moral weight of possession in large numbers. There is ample reason for interested parties to tilt figures in their direction. The Ettinger study is well documented and unlike many other tallies is open for comment.
The characterization of the Jewish population between the Jordan and Mediterranean as being a dwindling majority flies in the face of the study's findings.  Jews have maintained a 60 percent majority there since 1967 and current trends speak to a similar balance into the future.
The full study can be found at <a href=”http://www.pademographics.com”>www.pademographics.com</a>. Taken alone, these three stories are just twinkling lights in a dark sky of what the media tells us about the Middle East, but taken together by those who see numbers as a form of reality, they give hope that principles like self-determination, democracy and the rule of law have a chance in a Middle East that today knows too little of those things.

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